A new survey reveals a razor-thin margin in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with the race remaining statistically tied ahead of next Tuesday’s election. According to a Quantus Insights poll conducted October 26–27 among 1,380 likely voters, Sherrill holds a 49% lead over Ciattarelli at 46%, with a ±2.6% margin of error. The results highlight a deeply polarized electorate, as both candidates vie for control of Drumthacket.
The demographic landscape shows a majority-white population (71%), with 77% of voters aged 45 or older and 36% classified as senior citizens. Women constitute 53% of the electorate, while partisan affiliations tilt slightly toward Democrats at 44%, followed by Republicans at 34% and unaffiliated voters at 21%. Geographically, North Jersey remains a Democratic stronghold, South Jersey leans Republican, and the central corridor—comprising 28% of voters—could determine the outcome.
Early voting trends reveal a Democratic advantage, with 35% of Democrats having already cast ballots compared to 24% of Republicans. Among early voters, 62% opted for mail-in ballots, with Democrats dominating this method at 75% versus 45% for Republicans. Ciattarelli’s campaign emphasized strong support among in-person voters, citing increased participation from new and infrequent voters.
The race has drawn national scrutiny as one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, potentially signaling shifting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms. A co/efficient poll also found Sherrill at 48% versus Ciattarelli’s 47%, with five percent undecided. Both candidates face mixed favorability ratings, with Sherrill at 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable, and Ciattarelli at 46% favorable and 46% unfavorable.
