A new poll in the New York City mayoral election reveals former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo trailing Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani by a narrow margin, with 39.4 percent compared to Mamdani’s 43.9 percent. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa holds 15.5 percent in the survey conducted by AtlasIntel, a firm credited as the most accurate polling company of the 2024 election by Nate Silver.
Cuomo’s campaign has emphasized momentum, with the former governor stating, “The trend continues—the momentum is ours. The more people vote, the stronger we are—let’s go, New York City. We are going to win!” The previous poll showed Mamdani leading by a wider margin, but the tighter race has intensified focus on the final days of campaigning.
Early voting saw over 735,000 ballots cast across nine days, far exceeding the 2021 mayoral race’s early voting totals. While this number fell short of the nearly 1.1 million early votes in last year’s presidential election, some polling sites experienced long lines, including one in downtown Brooklyn where voters waited over an hour.
Cuomo embarked on a borough-wide get-out-the-vote effort, criticizing Mamdani by comparing a potential administration to left-wing governments in Latin America. Meanwhile, Mamdani began his day crossing the Brooklyn Bridge with a banner and rallying progressive supporters through viral social media content. Sliwa honored a woman killed in a 2023 subway fire by laying a wreath at a Brooklyn station.
Elon Musk publicly endorsed Cuomo, urging voters to “VOTE CUOMO!” in a social media post. The poll, which surveyed 2,400 voters with a 2 percentage point margin of error, also showed Cuomo leading Mamdani 49.7 percent to 44.1 percent in a hypothetical two-way race. However, the survey’s party breakdown underestimated Democratic support and overestimated Republican and independent votes compared to early voting data.
