Former U.S. counterterrorism chief Joe Kent reported today that all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies concluded Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon and would retaliate against American military bases across the Middle East if the United States attacked the country. The agencies also assessed Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, Kent stated on X.
Kent’s report details a confidential CIA analysis revealing Iran could withstand U.S.-Israel airstrikes for three to four months without severe economic hardship. The intelligence community found Tehran retains approximately 75 percent of its prewar mobile missile launchers and 70 percent of its missile stockpiles despite intense bombardment, with evidence showing the regime has reopened nearly all underground storage facilities and repaired damaged systems.
Kent emphasized that prior to the conflict, U.S. intelligence consistently disagreed with Israel’s claims about Iran’s vulnerability. He noted that Trump “unwisely listened” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertions that defeating Iran would be straightforward, despite CIA assessments labeling such claims “farcical.”
The former Green Beret has repeatedly argued the war lacks clear objectives, warning that without a defined end goal—such as eliminating Iran’s enrichment capabilities—the conflict risks becoming a prolonged quagmire. Kent outlined three options for Trump: reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force, launching another attack on Iran, or withdrawing U.S. forces to leverage sanctions relief and diplomatic pressure. He stressed that “Iran wins by us staying in this war,” urging Trump to declare victory and end the conflict while global polling suggests Americans already perceive a win.
