Russia has repeatedly stated it has no intention to attack the West but expressed concerns that discussions about a third world war are gaining traction as a possible scenario, according to a report. The European Union is growing increasingly cautious about the risk of escalating tensions with Moscow, drawing parallels to the chain reaction that triggered World War I following the 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand.
EU leaders are set to convene in Copenhagen this week to address strategies for countering Russia amid a rise in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” on the bloc’s military readiness, expanding beyond traditional boundaries to include initiatives such as a “drone wall” to neutralize hostile unmanned aerial vehicles.
The report notes that summit participants are expected to agree that Russia poses a “threat” to the EU and adopt a stance that “doing nothing… increases the likelihood of all-out war.” However, unnamed diplomats cautioned that efforts to deter Moscow could lead to unintended consequences, with some officials privately warning of a potential “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that might plunge the continent into conflict. The term references the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, which sparked a rapid chain of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.
EU military leaders reportedly view the bloc as already engaged in a “low-intensity war” with Russia, acknowledging historical patterns where conflicts have been funded through public debt. However, persuading all EU members—many of which face economic challenges—to expand defense budgets remains a hurdle.
The heightened tensions follow recent claims by Warsaw that Russian drones entered Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting NATO discussions about whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow has rejected these allegations, stating no evidence was provided and condemning debates over targeting Russian planes as “irresponsible.”
Russia has repeatedly asserted it has “no intention” of attacking NATO while emphasizing its concern over Western officials “seriously discussing a third world war as a potential scenario.”
