The Texas GOP Senate runoff is turning into a rout. Prediction markets indicated President Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton had a 97% chance of defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by Tuesday night.
With only 25% of votes reported, Paxton held a staggering 22-point lead over the three-term senator. That margin grew as election-day vote drops continued to roll in. One batch of returns showed Paxton securing 87% of the vote in a specific county—a figure that drew significant attention from political analysts and raised questions about the race’s trajectory.
Cornyn’s campaign confirmed the senator would not attend his own watch party, choosing instead to monitor results privately. The event reportedly had only about 50 chairs.
President Trump endorsed Paxton ahead of the runoff, positioning him as a direct challenger to Sen. Cornyn. The endorsement immediately energized Republican voters who prioritize loyalty to the former president. Cornyn entered the race with incumbency and significant advertising spending, having spent roughly $90 million on campaigns since last year. However, the timing of Trump’s endorsement appeared to shift momentum decisively.
The runoff carries national implications beyond Texas. The winner will face Democratic state representative James Talarico in November, adding critical stakes to the Senate race. Early returns suggest President Trump’s endorsement may have broken the race open with Paxton now holding a commanding lead.
