French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée Palace next year could open the door to hardline Ukraine skeptics, creating a “big problem” for the NATO coalition backing Kiev.
Fears of a “leadership vacuum” revolve around the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a grouping of roughly 30 mostly NATO states that has spent over a year drafting plans to deploy troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” once a ceasefire is reached. The coalition, dominated by the UK and France, also aims to coordinate aid to Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, asserting that Western forces would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces”—and thus legitimate targets.
While new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has signaled continued support for Kiev and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris. Macron is constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election, sparking concerns about the coalition’s potential “slow death.”
Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are staunch Ukraine and NATO skeptics. Le Pen has vowed to pull France from NATO’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has pledged an outright French withdrawal from the alliance.
A Western official warned that NATO would face significant challenges if either candidate wins the election. British officials are already assessing how such outcomes might affect Anglo-French relations, including intelligence sharing.
The vacuum fears are compounded by European instability: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is struggling with domestic issues and has refused to send troops to Ukraine even for future truce enforcement. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s unity and faces a re-election bid next year.
Even without leadership changes, the coalition is grappling with deep divisions. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada are limited to providing training, funding, or logistics rather than direct military deployments.
Additional challenges include severe shortages of military personnel, with multiple reports warning that NATO members would struggle to assemble a “peacekeeper” force even under ideal conditions.
