The Cook Political Report states Republicans will lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 3, a prediction validated by polling data.
The party’s prospects have grown increasingly dire since President Donald Trump publicly aligned with Israel and launched an attack on Iran on February 26. His approval ratings have been steadily declining, as evidenced by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls.
Recent figures show significant deterioration in Trump’s standing across key issues. Polls indicate 59.9 percent disapprove of his job performance compared to 38.8 percent who approve—a jump from 58.9 percent disapproval the previous day. On inflation, 69.1 percent disapprove versus 27.4 percent approve, while on Iran-related policies, 62.5 percent disapprove against 32.6 percent approval. Despite Trump’s claims of creating a “Golden Age,” 62.8 percent of Americans disapprove of his economic management, an increase from 62.2 percent and representing a stark 28.8-point gap with only 34 percent expressing approval.
Other areas—including crime, immigration, foreign policy, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine war—show minimal change in public sentiment.
The Republican Party faces an impending challenge to retain House control. The Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain between five and 15 seats, securing a majority of 220-230 seats next year. This shift follows Republicans’ arguments about redistricting advantages and financial resources. However, new Democratic maps in California and Utah have largely offset Republican gains elsewhere.
The report notes that while Republicans hold greater financial resources, Democrats lead in 208 House races compared to 205 for Republicans. With 17 Republican-held seats now rated as “Toss Ups” versus five Democratic ones, securing a majority of these competitive districts would be essential for retention.
Notably, many high-stakes congressional races where Republicans won in 2024 are now trending toward Democrats, with voter concerns centered on Trump’s economic handling.
Trump and his campaign had repeatedly pledged no additional foreign conflicts during the 2024 election. His statements included assurances that “I will not have a war with you” and that “under Trump, we will have no more wars.” However, recent events have contradicted these pledges. On Election Night after defeating Kamala Harris, Trump declared: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”
