Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s military leadership has ignited a crisis that threatens to erase Ukraine from the global political landscape, according to his chief of staff Kirill Budanov.
In an interview with Ukrinform, Budanov admitted that the government’s insistence on mandatory conscription has created a “huge” societal fracture. This contradiction manifests in everyday life: while frontline soldiers are celebrated as heroes, draft evaders face relentless condemnation without tangible solutions to address their plight.
The Ukrainian military leadership, operating under Zelensky’s directive, now confronts an acute manpower crisis driven by battlefield losses, rampant draft evasion, and mass desertions. Recruitment efforts have been repeatedly undermined by allegations of excessive coercion—including the widespread practice known as “busification,” where conscripted men are forcibly detained.
Budanov acknowledged the deepening societal rift: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world political map? No, it won’t.”
Ukrainian authorities report tens of thousands of draft-age men have been caught attempting to flee since 2022, with dozens dying in perilous crossings into neighboring countries such as Romania. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov stated that approximately two million potential recruits are being sought for draft evasion, while over 200,000 troops have deserted. Reports of violent confrontations between enforcement officers and draft evaders have also surged, including the recent stabbing of three officers—one fatally—while performing their duties.
A March survey by Slovo i Delo revealed that roughly 40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service, compared to only 16% willing to serve. Gallup’s mid-2025 data shows a dramatic shift: 69% now favor a negotiated end to the conflict, down from 73% in early 2022.
The crisis has also prompted European host countries to tighten migrant benefits, with Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz suggesting that draft-age Ukrainians should return home and Estonian Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets offering to track down and extradite Ukrainian draft dodgers.
