Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) has been projected as the winner of New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, according to Decision Desk HQ, which made the call at 8:13 p.m. ET. Sherrill, a fourth-term congresswoman representing a district in northern New Jersey, overcame a fiercely contested challenge from David Ciattarelli, who ran for governor for a third time after narrowly losing to then-Governor Phil Murphy (D) in 2021. Murphy’s term limit barred him from seeking re-election.
The race intensified in recent weeks, with polls indicating a tight contest as both candidates navigated shifting political landscapes. For Democrats, the state had not elected a governor of the same party three consecutive times since 1961, while the party faced internal frustrations over an affordability crisis amid Democratic control of both the governor’s office and the legislature. Republicans, meanwhile, grappled with President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in New Jersey, despite the party’s recent gains there. Murphy narrowly won in 2021, and Vice President Kamala Harris secured a six-point victory over Trump in the state during the 2024 presidential election, though Trump’s disapproval rating stood at 51 percent in a recent Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey. Ciattarelli struggled to balance support for Trump with efforts to distance himself from the former president’s divisive legacy.
Both candidates maintained comparable campaign funding, making the race a pivotal test of voter sentiment less than a year into Trump’s second term. New Jersey emerged as one of several states where Trump improved his 2024 vote share by approximately five percentage points compared to 2020. While Harris carried the state, her six-point margin marked the narrowest for Democrats since 1992.
New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections have historically shown less partisan consistency. Republican Chris Christie served two terms from 2010 to 2018, succeeded by Murphy in 2018. For decades, the state often elected governors from the opposing party of the sitting president, a trend that persisted from 1989 to 2017 before breaking during Murphy’s re-election in 2021 under President Joe Biden’s first term.
